. Craig Anderson - Jan. 28, 2010 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic
For the first time since the foreclosure crisis began, the price of a Phoenix-area foreclosed home is roughly the same as it was a year ago.
Arizona State University professor Karl Guntermann, who publishes the monthly ASU Repeat Sales Index housing report, said preliminary data for December show the median price for a foreclosed home was down just 2 percent from December 2008.
"If the preliminary numbers hold up, the foreclosure segment of the housing market will have reached bottom," Guntermann said. "A leveling out of the foreclosure RSI (Repeat Sales Index) would reflect both the substantial decline in prices that has occurred over the past two years and increased demand from first-time buyers and investors for those homes."
Guntermann said he was "a little surprised" that the index showed foreclosures so close to bottoming out.
In October, foreclosed homes still were selling at about 15 percent less than they had a year earlier, and by November that change had decreased to 8 percent, Guntermann said.
Then, in December, the annual drop shrank to a mere 2 percent, based on early numbers.
The December median sale price for the homes that Guntermann tracks was $127,000, up from November's median price of $120,000.
The index for non-foreclosed homes showed a very different trend in December, indicating that the Valley housing market continues to follow two distinct paths: one for bank-owned home sales and the other for more traditional sales.
The median sale price for non-foreclosures continued on a steady decline that barely has budged in more than a year.
"By October 2008, non-foreclosures were declining at an annual rate of 20 percent, and they still are," Guntermann said.
December's median price for traditional sales was $158,000, compared with $166,000 in November.
The index does not correlate exactly with year-over-year price changes, he said, because there is a sort of reverse momentum built into the calculation that lowers the index slightly if it's on the rise, and raises it slightly if it's on the decline.
It has been dropping for a record 32 months since home prices peaked in mid-2006.
Still, Guntermann said that is likely to change within the next few months.
The overall index, including foreclosed-home and traditional sales, was down 12 percent from a year earlier.
That's a sizeable improvement over November, when it was down 17 percent.
The overall median price in December was $133,000, down from $135,000 in November, early data show.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Pending home sales, prices on the rise
January’s rise in pending home sales is a critical recovery indicator for Arizona’s real estate market, says Mesa analyst Michael Orr.
While that indicates prices are likely to increase, the recovery is expected to be shallow and slow, said the author of the Cromford Report, an online subscription-based resource on the metro Phoenix residential resale market.
The latest report shows pending sales hit a record 9,883 in the first week of January 2010 — a 79 percent increase over the 5,530 tally a year ago.
The Arizona real estate market peaked in June 2006, with the bottom hitting in April 2009 and maximum inventory of homes on the market in late April 2008, according to the report and Fidelity National Title.
“Like a supertanker, once the real estate market gathers momentum, it is very slow to turn around,” Orr said. “2010 won’t see a dramatic shift, but we can expect to see a shallow upward trend across the market. The number of homes under contract is more than double what it was last January, and sale price increases are likely to follow.”
While demand has cooled at the bottom of the market, activity is warming for homes in the $250,000-$400,000 range, but individual neighborhoods may vary, according to the report.
And short sales are on the rise.
“The last three months of 2009 saw a 60 percent increase in short sale closings,” says Fidelity Senior Vice President Steve de Laveaga. “In 2010, you will see a number of lenders move to aggressive short sale programs and cash for keys for sellers.”
http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2010/01/25/daily26.html?s=industry&i=resi_real_estate
While that indicates prices are likely to increase, the recovery is expected to be shallow and slow, said the author of the Cromford Report, an online subscription-based resource on the metro Phoenix residential resale market.
The latest report shows pending sales hit a record 9,883 in the first week of January 2010 — a 79 percent increase over the 5,530 tally a year ago.
The Arizona real estate market peaked in June 2006, with the bottom hitting in April 2009 and maximum inventory of homes on the market in late April 2008, according to the report and Fidelity National Title.
“Like a supertanker, once the real estate market gathers momentum, it is very slow to turn around,” Orr said. “2010 won’t see a dramatic shift, but we can expect to see a shallow upward trend across the market. The number of homes under contract is more than double what it was last January, and sale price increases are likely to follow.”
While demand has cooled at the bottom of the market, activity is warming for homes in the $250,000-$400,000 range, but individual neighborhoods may vary, according to the report.
And short sales are on the rise.
“The last three months of 2009 saw a 60 percent increase in short sale closings,” says Fidelity Senior Vice President Steve de Laveaga. “In 2010, you will see a number of lenders move to aggressive short sale programs and cash for keys for sellers.”
http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2010/01/25/daily26.html?s=industry&i=resi_real_estate
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
GREAT NEWS 90 Day Flip Rule LIFTED!!!
Here it is!!!! What great news for ALL buyers and investors!
FHA To Waive 90 Day Flip Rule
In the current marketplace home buyers are prevented from obtaining an FHA loan for the purchase of a home that had been acquired in the past 90 days buy the seller. In essence, a buyer was unable to purchase a flipped property, or one that was bought and sold quickly. However, come February 1, 2010 this rule will change to allow for home buyers, with certain restrictions, to buy these type of properties. The new 90 day flip waiver complete information has already been released by the FHA and will be in place for the next 12 months. Below is an excerpt from the official release of this new program waiver. Of Course as always we will provide additional updates on this program, including when lenders will officially start allowing this type of financing again as well.
"In today's market, FHA research finds that acquiring, rehabilitating and the reselling these properties to prospective homeowners often takes less than 90 days. Prohibiting the use of FHA mortgage insurance for a subsequent resale within 90 days of acquisition adversely impacts the willingness of sellers to allow contracts from potential FHA buyers because they must consider holding costs and the risk of vandalism associated with allowing a property to sit vacant over a 90-day period of time.
The policy change will permit buyers to use FHA-insured financing to purchase HUD-owned properties, bank-owned properties, or properties resold through private sales. This will allow homes to resell as quickly as possible, helping to stabilize real estate prices and to revitalize neighborhoods and communities.
The waiver will take effect on February 1, 2010 and is effective for one year, unless otherwise extended or withdrawn by the FHA Commissioner. To protect FHA borrowers against predatory practices of "flipping" where properties are quickly resold at inflated prices to unsuspecting borrowers, this waiver is limited to those sales meeting the following general conditions:
•All transactions must be arms-length, with no identity of interest between the buyer and seller or other parties participating in the sales transaction.
•In cases in which the sales price of the property is 20 percent or more above the seller's acquisition cost, the waiver will only apply if the lender meets specific conditions."
FHA To Waive 90 Day Flip Rule
In the current marketplace home buyers are prevented from obtaining an FHA loan for the purchase of a home that had been acquired in the past 90 days buy the seller. In essence, a buyer was unable to purchase a flipped property, or one that was bought and sold quickly. However, come February 1, 2010 this rule will change to allow for home buyers, with certain restrictions, to buy these type of properties. The new 90 day flip waiver complete information has already been released by the FHA and will be in place for the next 12 months. Below is an excerpt from the official release of this new program waiver. Of Course as always we will provide additional updates on this program, including when lenders will officially start allowing this type of financing again as well.
"In today's market, FHA research finds that acquiring, rehabilitating and the reselling these properties to prospective homeowners often takes less than 90 days. Prohibiting the use of FHA mortgage insurance for a subsequent resale within 90 days of acquisition adversely impacts the willingness of sellers to allow contracts from potential FHA buyers because they must consider holding costs and the risk of vandalism associated with allowing a property to sit vacant over a 90-day period of time.
The policy change will permit buyers to use FHA-insured financing to purchase HUD-owned properties, bank-owned properties, or properties resold through private sales. This will allow homes to resell as quickly as possible, helping to stabilize real estate prices and to revitalize neighborhoods and communities.
The waiver will take effect on February 1, 2010 and is effective for one year, unless otherwise extended or withdrawn by the FHA Commissioner. To protect FHA borrowers against predatory practices of "flipping" where properties are quickly resold at inflated prices to unsuspecting borrowers, this waiver is limited to those sales meeting the following general conditions:
•All transactions must be arms-length, with no identity of interest between the buyer and seller or other parties participating in the sales transaction.
•In cases in which the sales price of the property is 20 percent or more above the seller's acquisition cost, the waiver will only apply if the lender meets specific conditions."
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